AL Central-leading White Sox continue trip in Seattle

Baseball Betting Lines

07/19/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox ended the season's first half as the hottest team in baseball, but things haven't gotten so smoothly since the club returned from the All-Star break.

The American League Central leaders will try to rebound from a shocking late- inning loss on Sunday when they continue their current road trip with tonight's matchup with the Seattle Mariners from Safeco Field.

Chicago won its final eight games prior to the break to vault into first place in the competitive AL Central, then extended its impressive win streak with an 8-7 victory over Minnesota on Thursday. The White Sox then proceeded to lose their next three clashes with the division-rival Twins and are in the midst of their longest skid since a four-game slide from April 15-18.

The White Sox appeared poised to end their winless drought on Sunday, taking a three-run lead into the ninth inning of the finale of the Minnesota series. However, the Twins scored four times off closer Bobby Jenks in their final at- bat to rally for a 7-6 triumph.

Jenks (1-2) entered the bottom of the ninth charged with protecting a 6-3 advantage, but promptly walked the first two batters before surrendering back- to-back RBI singles to Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer. Sergio Santos then came on in relief and walked Jason Repko to load the bases, and Delmon Young followed with a bloop single to tie the score. Center fielder Alex Rios' relay throw missed the cutoff man on the play, allowing Cuddyer to score the winning run from third.

"Just didn't have it," Jenks said afterward. "My cutter was coming back, my sinker wasn't sinking, the slider was big. Just didn't have my stuff today."

Sunday's win moved the Twins within 1 1/2 games of the White Sox in the AL Central standings. Chicago also holds a 1 1/2-game edge on Detroit, which was swept in a four-game set with last-place Cleveland over the weekend.

On a positive note, Chicago's Gordon Beckham went 4-for-4 with two RBI in yesterday's loss to extend his hitting streak to seven games. The sophomore second baseman has gone 12-for-18 at the plate over his last five outings.

The White Sox will turn to youngster Daniel Hudson tonight in hopes of reversing their recent fortunes. The rookie right-hander will be making his second start since being called up from the minors to take the rotation spot of the injured Jake Peavy.

Hudson struggled in his season debut, allowing five runs on six hits and walking three batters before leaving after four innings of a July 11 loss at Kansas City. The 23-year-old had been pitching very well for Triple-A Charlotte prior to the promotion, compiling an 11-4 record with a 3.47 earned run average and 108 strikeouts in 17 starts for the Knights.

A fifth-round selection of Chicago in the 2008 draft, Hudson made six appearances (two starts) for the White Sox last September and went 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA.

He'll be taking on a Seattle club that ranks last in the AL in both runs scored (309) and batting average (.239) and is a woeful 3-12 thus far in July. The Mariners were able to halt a string of four consecutive losses, however, with an extra-inning verdict over the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim on Sunday.

Jose Lopez knocked in the deciding run with a two-out single in the top of the 10th in yesterday's 2-1 win, scoring Franklin Gutierrez from second base. Gutierrez had reached base on a fielder's choice and got into scoring position with a steal of second.

Lopez ended 2-for-5 for the Mariners, who prevailed despite managing only five hits on the afternoon. Starting pitcher Jason Vargas performed well in a no- decision, holding the Angels to a run on four hits and striking out a career- high nine batters in 7 2/3 innings of work.

"I was able to throw quality pitches and I had good control of my changeup," said Vargas. "I knew I had to hold them down to win the game." The Mariners would love to receive a similar showing from David Pauley in tonight's opener of this three-game series. The longtime minor-leaguer is getting a look in the Seattle rotation following the team's recent trade of All-Star Cliff Lee to Texas.

Pauley took Lee's scheduled turn in a July 9 clash against the New York Yankees at Safeco Field and pitched admirably, yielding three runs -- one earned -- and just two hits over five innings. He still wound up with the loss, however, in Seattle's 6-1 setback.

The start was Pauley's first in the majors since September 26, 2008, while then a member of the Boston Red Sox, and sixth of his career. The right-hander is still in search of his initial win at the big-league level, as he's 0-4 with a 7.47 ERA in 13 appearances with the Mariners and Red Sox.

This will be the first-ever encounter with Chicago for Pauley, who threw four scoreless innings over a combined three relief appearances after being recalled from the minors in late June.

The White Sox swept a three-game set from the Mariners in Chicago from April 23-25, but lost four of six bouts between these teams held at Safeco Field last season.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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