Cavs and 'Noles square off in ACC tussle

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/10/2009 - Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the second time in less than three weeks, the Virginia Cavaliers and the Florida State Seminoles will meet in an ACC tilt, this time in Tallahassee.

On January 24th, Florida State beat Virginia in Charlottesville by a 73-62 final, cutting the Cavaliers' lead to 17-16 in the all-time series.

Virginia limps into this evening's tilt with a seven-game losing streak that has dropped the club to 7-12 overall and 1-7 in conference. The Cavs have lost by double digits in five of the seven setbacks, including a 76-61 loss at North Carolina on Saturday. Virginia is 1-6 in true road games, not exactly a reason for optimism tonight.

As for Florida State, it has won its last two outings, including an impressive 65-61 road win over an extremely talented Clemson squad on Saturday. At 18-5 overall and 5-3 in conference action, the Seminoles, who are ranked 25th in the country this week, are in outstanding position to claim an NCAA Tournament bid, although plenty of regular season challenges await in the loaded ACC.

There are a few obvious reasons that Virginia lost to North Carolina on Saturday. The Cavaliers connected on only 36.5 percent of their field goal attempts in the contest, and they were outrebounded by a 46-34 final. An 11-5 deficit in points from the foul line also helped the cause. Jeff Jones scored 19 points for Virginia in the setback, and Sylven Landesberg pitched in 16 points. Sammy Zeglinski rounded out a trio of double-digit scorers with 11 points off the bench. Through 19 outings, the Cavaliers are posting 72.3 ppg, slightly less than the 73.7 ppg that the team is surrendering. Landesberg is just a freshman, but he is scoring 17.9 ppg. Mike Scott adds 10.5 ppg and 7.6 rpg, while Zeglinski is netting 9.5 ppg.

Toney Douglas was outstanding in the thrilling triumph over Clemson last time out, as the standout guard led Florida State with 23 points. Solomon Alabi came through with 17 points and nine rebounds for the Seminoles, who earned a 36-28 rebounding advantage in the clash while also forcing 18 turnovers. FSU actually trailed by eight points at intermission after shooting 30 percent from the floor in the first half, but 51.7 percent field goal efficiency over the final 20 minutes enabled the Seminoles to claim the come-from-behind win. Douglas is racking up 20.3 ppg this season, and no other player on the roster is scoring more than 8.4 ppg. With that in mind, it is fair to say that no other player in the ACC means more to his team than Douglas.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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